Breckinridge views climate change, and its financial implications, to be material issues for our business in short- and long-term planning. The risks are related to both our operations and the investments we make on behalf of our clients. In 2020, our Sustainability Committee created a Climate Policy, outlining our views and overarching intentions to address climate change. This will formally be introduced in 2021, followed by the recommendation of a Climate Action Plan, which will outline an approach for identifying and measuring climate impacts on the firm and its investments, as well as a proposal for managing those risks.
Our operations are exposed to physical climate risk, such as those posed from our Boston office location near the waterfront. Breckinridge instituted initiatives to manage climate risks in our operations, including the BCP mentioned above. Climate change is also impacting our investments. As examples, some municipal and corporate bond issuers are being affected by physical risks, such as a coastal community dealing with sea level rise, or transition risk, such as a coal company suffering from a loss of revenue due to a market shift to renewable sources of energy. While currently infrequent, poor management of climate risks may lead to an uptick in issuer downgrades by credit rating agencies, financial distress and a devaluation of our investments.
Costs associated with evaluating and managing climate risk and opportunities include our data warehouses and information security contracts for our operations and the cost of climate data and other subscriptions for our ESG research efforts.
Climate change presents risks and opportunities for corporate issuers. We incorporate climate risk into our corporate ESG frameworks and comparables sheets, where we determine it to be most material. Given Breckinridge’s investable universe, transition risk, or the risks stemming from the shift to a low carbon economy, is the primary challenge facing corporate issuers. For certain sectors, such as Energy and Utilities, analysts examine measures such as GHG emissions intensity, emission reduction goals, power generation mix, long-term energy resource planning and performance relative to peers. Other sectors, such as Real Estate Investment Trusts, are presented with physical climate risk. In this case, analysts seek to understand how a company is managing its property portfolio to adapt to a climate marked by extreme weather and sea-level rise. When disclosed by a company, analysts review Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosure (TCFD) reporting to assess management’s climate risk planning. Finally, climate risks, if particularly material to the sector or issuer, are examined during engagement calls.
Climate change poses both risks and opportunities for municipal issuers as well, depending on geography, the built environment and the local economy. We incorporate climate change analysis into our municipal ESG frameworks where we determine it to be most material. Exposure to hurricanes, flooding and wildfires is assessed using metrics produced by risQ, a third-party data vendor. The data from risQ helps us gauge the magnitude of an issuer’s physical climate risk relative to implementation of proactive solutions like forward-looking land use planning or more stringent building codes. Our municipal analysts also consider climate transition risks and opportunities, such as job-market exposure to carbon-intensive industries or emerging clean technologies. Our understanding of the effects of climate change on municipal issuers is further enhanced through our issuer engagement efforts. In 2020, we spoke with local governments about equity considerations in climate change planning and municipal electric utilities about carbon-neutral generation resource planning.
Finally, for mortgage-backed securities (MBS), Breckinridge invests primarily in agency MBS. Unlike other municipal and corporate bonds, agency MBS have low credit risk thanks to explicit or implicit guarantees from government sponsored entities (GSEs) such as the Government National Mortgage Association (Ginnie Mae), Federal National Mortgage Association (Fannie Mae), and Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (Freddie Mac). Prepayment risk is a key risk for agency MBS because it can affect the timing of cash flows, which drives realized returns from the underlying pool of mortgages. A natural disaster can accelerate the principal prepayment of mortgages in the affected area, as victims qualify for mortgage relief. Therefore, climate events can impact broad prepayment trends, altering the cash flows and therefore impacting investor returns.
To better understand climate-related prepayment risk in MBS, the Breckinridge team analyzed the buyout policies of GSEs as they relate to environmental disasters, such as the hurricanes that hit the states of Florida and Texas in 2017. The team also researched the experiential effect that these events historically had on mortgage prepayment speeds.
Based on our research findings, we also created a physical climate risk score that is used to adjust the annualized percentage of a mortgage pool expected to be prepaid above and beyond scheduled amortization in a year, also known as the Conditional Prepayment Rates (CPR). Our adjustment is based on the exposure to climate-related risk factors based on the geographic composition of the underlying loans. We leveraged our municipal ESG analysis to develop the score.